Why Reform Has No Choice
Over recent days, there has been much debate in British politics about the future of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. Cemented by the defection of Robert Jenrick, the Conservative Shadow Secretary of State for Justice and Shadow Lord Chancellor, who was pushed by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch as he was about to jump ship, Reform is developing a reputation for moving to the centre.
Jenrick followed in the footsteps of a number of senior or formerly senior Conservatives, including Nadhim Zahawi, Nadine Dorries, Jake Berry and others. As a curious aside, the last time I saw Jake Berry was on Question Time, when he challenged me on my criticism of Net Zero to explain that “Net Zero is the solution, not the problem”.
The programme was recorded as Nadhim Zahawi was in the process of being sacked as Conservative Party Chairman because he had failed to declare that HMRC was in the middle of an investigation into his personal tax affairs when he was being appointed to various ministerial positions.
This anecdote alone gives you a flavour of the sorts of concerns many have raised about the increasing Toryfication of Reform. Last night it was confirmed that another Tory MP, Andrew Rosindell had defected to Reform, bringing the number of Reform MPs to 7, of whom more than half are now Tory defectors (Lee Anderson, Danny Kruger, Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell).
The worry for many is that as conservative refugees become more numerous than “native” reformers within the party, the centre of gravity will shift away from Reform’s radical agenda towards the very policies and personalities they so thoroughly rejected at the last election. Reform’s defiant position against the failed status quo was what won them their legion of supporters. Now, some feel they’re cosying up to it. Personnel is policy, after all, and having forced out tough-talking right-wingers like Rupert Lowe and Ben Habib, Reform appears to be going slightly vegan.
It is rare for me to be accused of naive optimism, but, in this instance, I do not actually share these concerns for a number of reasons which we’ll come to shortly. But first, and much more importantly, we have to recognise that Reform has no choice but to continue salvaging what they can from the rotting carcass of the Conservative Party.
Why? Because Britain is not America.
Our electoral system does not allow a charismatic leader with a small band of acolytes to storm to power in the way that President Trump did with just JD Vance, RFK Jr., Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy at his side. To become Prime Minister, Nigel Farage has to have 650 men and women stand as candidates in constituencies across the country and more than half of them to actually be elected. Even now, when much of the public is fed up with the status quo and Kier Starmer enjoying the lowest favourability ratings in history, having a Reform rosette pinned on you will not guarantee victory in a specific constituency, especially to an unknown, politically-inexperienced candidate.
Once elected, that MP will be faced with the reality that standing as an MP is almost the exact opposite of being an MP. A political campaign is about making speeches, knocking on doors and selling yourself to the public. But once the sale is made, your constituents need you to solve their problems. Making witty comebacks on TV requires an entirely different skillset to filling in potholes. And metaphorical potholes are no small matter, nor one to worry about once the election is in the bag. The only way Reform can succeed as a political project is to win the war of the next election and then win the peace by actually delivering both locally and nationally.
Which brings us to the final reason why Reform has no choice.
