The Real Reason Socialism is on the Rise

In the wake of Zohran Mamdani’s win in the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York, there has been a glut of commentary from people who didn’t see it coming, attempting to understand what is happening.

Some, like investor and former TRIGGERnometry guest Bill Ackman, argue that Mamdani is a uniquely talented retail politician who outworked the competition. In this conception, his policies were not the determining factor.

Others, like fellow investor Tyler Winklevoss, believe that it is simply time for young people to be reminded of the realities of socialism. According to this view, indoctrinated at school and university and let down by parents who failed to prepare them for the real world, millennials and Gen Z just won’t wake up until they face the reality of Mamdani’s insane policies, like government-run grocery stores and rent freezes.

Others still take a dimmer view of the next generation, proclaiming that Mamdani won because of vibes.

The centre-left, on the other hand, consoles itself with the notion that he was up against a terrible candidate in Andrew Cuomo.

All of these people are right. And all of them are wrong.

It’s true that Mamdani appears to have the common touch. But many people who do are unable to produce the stunning victory he achieved.

It’s true that young people do not understand the history of socialism and have little idea of just how terrible the consequences of Mamdani’s policies will be.

It’s true that vibes were a powerful force in this election. But politics has always been about vibes. The elections of Barack Obama and President Trump were about vibes too.

And yes, it’s true that Cuomo is a terrible candidate who is facing allegations of sexual harassment, as well as scrutiny for his disastrous decisions during the pandemic. But that doesn’t explain the popularity of Mamdani, only the unpopularity of Cuomo.

The reality is that none of these variables on their own are sufficient to explain the rising popularity of socialism in many Western countries, or, more specifically, many large Western cities.

Every comedian has to learn this lesson the hard way: you may have great jokes, but people will only laugh if they agree with the premise.

The fact that, for at least a decade, our schools and universities have acted as woke madrassas is sufficient to prime young people for a receptivity to socialism. But it does not explain why the ideas are landing as hard as they are.

So why is socialism becoming popular? I tried to remind my conservative friends of this at the end of my speech at the first ARC conference when I said:

“Many of you here are conservatives. I’m not - I look terrible in tweed. That’s why I identify as politically non-binary. But I can tell you conservatives something: you will never get young people to want to conserve a society and an economy that is not working for them. We will not overcome woke nihilism as long as young people are locked out of the housing market, unable to pair up, unable to have kids, unable to plan for the future”.

Born in 1982, I am what you might call a geriatric millennial. I entered the workforce in 2003 and worked solidly for over a decade, making a good income as a translator and then as a circuit comedian. Together with my wife’s modest income as an artist, we earned a little above the median household income in Britain.

We bought our first property, a tiny apartment, at the age of 35. Far from being unusual, this is becoming normal: in London the average age of a first time buyer is 35, in New York it’s 37.

The counter often wheeled out against this argument is that, while certain aspects of life have become more challenging, young people now enjoy access to an immense array of consumer goods, electronics, food variety and so on. But the problem is that some things matter more than others. Housing is one of them. Most people, for example, would not want to have children until they have a place of their own. And, as any parent will tell you, having kids changes everything.

If you can’t afford to buy your own place and settle down, you are stuck in a permanent adolescent limbo in which making the right decisions no longer make sense: