I'm over the moon about the strikes. To be completely honest, I woke up yesterday morning, checked X for updates on the Lion & Sun Revolution just like I've done for the past 63 days and saw the post from the President. I was shocked, happy and then I collapsed in convulsive tears which came back throughout the day. I then started sending everything to Armin Navabi and Goldie Ghamari, because I'm one of their moderators.
I've been waiting for this for 45 years. I've known that Mohammed Reza Shah was beloved by his people - ever since seeing a portrait of him and his wife on the wall of my new best friend in 6th grade. That was the year we went from never hearing the name 'Amir' to having 2 Amirs, a Reza, a Maryam, a Salomay, a Peyman and a Cyrus - all in my year.
Iranians are a united people today, even more than they were only 4 years ago. They have become more united every year of their brutal oppression since 1979. So, you can conclude they are pretty f***ing united now.
The crown prince Reza Pahlavi has been working for the liberation of his country ever since the coup staged by Marxist-Islamists in 1979. If you go through his history of interviews and writing, you will see he has not changed one bit for 47 years. He has always wanted secular democracy and for the Iranian people to choose what kind they want. He has assembled a team of experts who have created the Iran Prosperity Project which was made available at their site 8 months ago:
We're already into the attack, so doing nothing is not an option. I have no sense that Trump wants to spend years organizing things like Bush did in iraq. Spending a week or two decapitating the goons and then leaving if up to the people seems to be the plan. If they can't get it done and the new mullah is a bad as the last, at least he'll have fewer resources to splurge on bad ideas.
“ I hope that with the Middle East stabilised, the US can turn its attentions to the theatres that really matter to the security of the West: Russia and China.” Hmm…assumes the Middke East will be stabilized. That will not be the case if psychobomber ayatollahs retain control. Aldo
some would suggest that what happens in Iran really matters to the security of the West - Russia and China will take serious notice if Iran ceases to be an Islamic republic and instead institutes a government with Western values and freedoms.
If guaranteed foreknowledge of the future were a requirement for expressing opinions, we'd never express any. The best we can ever do is assess the tolerability of the circumstances in which we find ourselves, while weighing the potential benefits and risks of both action and inaction. In the present case, relative inaction was tried for decades in the hope that religious fanatics would moderate their beliefs and behaviour and find their own path to joining the community of nations. Now Trump is gambling that decisive military action will achieve what dialogue and the prodding of sanctions have manifestly failed to accomplish. He may fail—it may turn out that no combination of action and inaction can solve the complex riddle of Middle Eastern tribal and religious antagonisms. But it's hard to argue the gamble has made future prospects bleaker than they already were.
How refreshing, KK, a person who isn't all-seeing and eager to proselytize. Donald Trump has accomplished a lot and is obviously willing to risk a lot politically. Love him or hate him, you'd have to agree he has both a vision and a large swinging pair. I'd say that your second truth, that a terrorist regime must not be allowed nuclear weapons, trumps the first truth.
This war is one that has felt inevitable for decades. In hindsight, it would have been better to have confronted this regime much earlier rather than wait for it to grow its proxies and its arsenal, and to build up terrorist cells across the west. Well, better late than too late.
This could be the moment when the scourge of islamism is finally repulsed. If islamic Iran is replaced with secular, westward looking, Iran it will seriously undermine the expansion of islamist ideology.
I am excited. This could be a pivotal moment in world history.
The Romans had a war policy that we will likely never see again, excepting the situation with Israel.
When the Romans thought invading and conquering a country was too expensive or unfeasible, they would undertake a policy of what we would call these days 'trimming the grass'. Every spring the Roman army would cross the border and destroy as much Infrastructure as possible before the coming of fall, and then retreat across the border to a safe winter camp. There was no 'war' as such. They just constantly punished any people that would not become the active allies of Rome. This constant low-level warfare was relatively inexpensive and ensured Roman military dominance on their borders.
The Israelis have used this policy for decades against Hamas and Hezbollah. It works only as long as your opponents are not willfully suicidal. Unfortunately, Islamic religious fanatics have often been shown to be bat-shit crazy. The primary negative outcome for Israel has been PR blowback. Considering the existential threats for Israel, they have just stopped caring avout what their enemies and neutral parties think about this policy.
Because of the modern media enviornment, this sort of effective policy is unlikely to see a return for States such as the US which are not existentially threatened.
Lesson from WW2 - Nazi Germany doing research towards developing atomic weapons.
Allies did all they could stop stop them during the war, while simultaneously developing their own. We'd live in a very different world if the Nazis had succeeded.
It’s hard to make predictions - especially about the future (Y.B).
The first priority in this situation is terminating Iran’s nuclear threat capability. It would be great if this resulted in a peaceful democratic regime in Iran. But even if it doesn’t, the nuke capability has to be terminated.
After that it’s going to be down to good management and good luck.
I'm over the moon about the strikes. To be completely honest, I woke up yesterday morning, checked X for updates on the Lion & Sun Revolution just like I've done for the past 63 days and saw the post from the President. I was shocked, happy and then I collapsed in convulsive tears which came back throughout the day. I then started sending everything to Armin Navabi and Goldie Ghamari, because I'm one of their moderators.
I've been waiting for this for 45 years. I've known that Mohammed Reza Shah was beloved by his people - ever since seeing a portrait of him and his wife on the wall of my new best friend in 6th grade. That was the year we went from never hearing the name 'Amir' to having 2 Amirs, a Reza, a Maryam, a Salomay, a Peyman and a Cyrus - all in my year.
Iranians are a united people today, even more than they were only 4 years ago. They have become more united every year of their brutal oppression since 1979. So, you can conclude they are pretty f***ing united now.
The crown prince Reza Pahlavi has been working for the liberation of his country ever since the coup staged by Marxist-Islamists in 1979. If you go through his history of interviews and writing, you will see he has not changed one bit for 47 years. He has always wanted secular democracy and for the Iranian people to choose what kind they want. He has assembled a team of experts who have created the Iran Prosperity Project which was made available at their site 8 months ago:
https://fund.nufdiran.org/projects/ipp/research/emergency-phase-booklet/
Trust me, they've got this!
Thanks KK. Zineb Riboua agrees with your assessment, and then some. Worth reading:
https://zinebriboua.substack.com/p/the-iran-question-is-all-about-china?r=1r75ye&utm_medium=ios
We're already into the attack, so doing nothing is not an option. I have no sense that Trump wants to spend years organizing things like Bush did in iraq. Spending a week or two decapitating the goons and then leaving if up to the people seems to be the plan. If they can't get it done and the new mullah is a bad as the last, at least he'll have fewer resources to splurge on bad ideas.
“ I hope that with the Middle East stabilised, the US can turn its attentions to the theatres that really matter to the security of the West: Russia and China.” Hmm…assumes the Middke East will be stabilized. That will not be the case if psychobomber ayatollahs retain control. Aldo
some would suggest that what happens in Iran really matters to the security of the West - Russia and China will take serious notice if Iran ceases to be an Islamic republic and instead institutes a government with Western values and freedoms.
If guaranteed foreknowledge of the future were a requirement for expressing opinions, we'd never express any. The best we can ever do is assess the tolerability of the circumstances in which we find ourselves, while weighing the potential benefits and risks of both action and inaction. In the present case, relative inaction was tried for decades in the hope that religious fanatics would moderate their beliefs and behaviour and find their own path to joining the community of nations. Now Trump is gambling that decisive military action will achieve what dialogue and the prodding of sanctions have manifestly failed to accomplish. He may fail—it may turn out that no combination of action and inaction can solve the complex riddle of Middle Eastern tribal and religious antagonisms. But it's hard to argue the gamble has made future prospects bleaker than they already were.
How refreshing, KK, a person who isn't all-seeing and eager to proselytize. Donald Trump has accomplished a lot and is obviously willing to risk a lot politically. Love him or hate him, you'd have to agree he has both a vision and a large swinging pair. I'd say that your second truth, that a terrorist regime must not be allowed nuclear weapons, trumps the first truth.
This war is one that has felt inevitable for decades. In hindsight, it would have been better to have confronted this regime much earlier rather than wait for it to grow its proxies and its arsenal, and to build up terrorist cells across the west. Well, better late than too late.
This could be the moment when the scourge of islamism is finally repulsed. If islamic Iran is replaced with secular, westward looking, Iran it will seriously undermine the expansion of islamist ideology.
I am excited. This could be a pivotal moment in world history.
The Romans had a war policy that we will likely never see again, excepting the situation with Israel.
When the Romans thought invading and conquering a country was too expensive or unfeasible, they would undertake a policy of what we would call these days 'trimming the grass'. Every spring the Roman army would cross the border and destroy as much Infrastructure as possible before the coming of fall, and then retreat across the border to a safe winter camp. There was no 'war' as such. They just constantly punished any people that would not become the active allies of Rome. This constant low-level warfare was relatively inexpensive and ensured Roman military dominance on their borders.
The Israelis have used this policy for decades against Hamas and Hezbollah. It works only as long as your opponents are not willfully suicidal. Unfortunately, Islamic religious fanatics have often been shown to be bat-shit crazy. The primary negative outcome for Israel has been PR blowback. Considering the existential threats for Israel, they have just stopped caring avout what their enemies and neutral parties think about this policy.
Because of the modern media enviornment, this sort of effective policy is unlikely to see a return for States such as the US which are not existentially threatened.
Lesson from WW2 - Nazi Germany doing research towards developing atomic weapons.
Allies did all they could stop stop them during the war, while simultaneously developing their own. We'd live in a very different world if the Nazis had succeeded.
It’s hard to make predictions - especially about the future (Y.B).
The first priority in this situation is terminating Iran’s nuclear threat capability. It would be great if this resulted in a peaceful democratic regime in Iran. But even if it doesn’t, the nuke capability has to be terminated.
After that it’s going to be down to good management and good luck.
Here’s hoping for the best.