Final Election Thoughts

The election is clearly super close. The polls are within the margin of error. Except some credible people say that the pollsters are so fearful of backlash they're covering their behinds.

13 Keys, which has accurately predicted every election but one since 1984, predicts a Harris win. Except when I look at his own criteria I don't agree with his number of true/false variables.

Keep in mind America’s electoral system. The popular vote is irrelevant: what matters is the state of play in the swing states each of which is within the margin of error. Either candidate could win them all by the tiniest of margins and get an Electoral College landslide despite the election being extremely close.

As for commentators, objectivity has become impossible. We are no longer watching the same news or using the same facts. I therefore totally discount the predictive opinions of people who are on a team. It doesn't mean they're wrong - on the contrary one of the teams' predictions will be proven right (unless it's 269-269). But that's like someone who is on Team Heads insisting that heads will win a coin toss. They could well be right but it doesn't mean they knew anything useful in advance.

As someone who loves America and knows how important it is to the rest of the world, I just hope Americans vote and then accept the results of the vote. I don't think the choice has been as clear in terms of both policy and personality as it is today in my lifetime. Now it's for our American friends to decide what they want/fear more.

P.S. Rather amusingly, a number of people on social media have asked which candidate I am endorsing. For the record, I am not endorsing anyone to avoid accusations of “Russian interference”.

Seriously though, if you want to know how I would have voted had I been American, in tomorrow's episode of

Triggernometry

with Jason Calacanis of the All-In Podcast we debate the merits of each candidate and I share my hypothetical voting intention. If you are a Substack subscriber of

Triggernometry

you’ll be able to access that interview and bonus content today!